New Policy Brief
California’s Latino and Asian-American Vote: Dramatic Underrepresentation in 2014 and Expected Impact in 2016
Available at: 
http://explore.regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/ccep

Latino eligible voter turnout rate in the 2014 general election - 17.3%

6.8 million eligible Latinos in California
 
Only 1.1 million Latinos actually voted

Asian-American eligible voter turnout in the November 2014 election - 18.4%

3 million eligible Asian-Americans in California
Only 545,000 thousand Asian-Americans actually voted

Latinos and Asian-Americans Underrepresented Among Voters 

Latinos:
15.4% of all voters
28% of eligible voter population
39% of total population

Asian-Americans:
7.4% of all voters
12.4% of eligible voter population
13.3% of total population 

What should one expect in the 2016 elections and beyond?
Graph - 2012-2040 Projected Total Population California 
Graph - 2012-2040 Projected Citizen Voting- Age Population California 

Projecting More Latino and Asian Voters
By 2016:
If Latinos maintain their 2012 eligible turnout rate, their percent of the vote will rise to 21.2%
By 2040: 
If Latinos maintain their 2012 eligible turnout rate, their percent of the vote will rise to 29.2%

Projecting More Latino and Asian Voters
By 2040:
Asian-American percent of the vote increase slightly to 8%
Latinos and Asian-Americans combined will be 37% of California’s eligible voters who actually cast a ballot 
They will be more than 50% of eligible voters in many of the state’s counties 

Today’s Take Aways
Dramatic underrepresentation in CA’s vote
Significant growth in state’s eligible voter population will bring opportunities and challenges
Understanding the characteristics of California’s eligible non-voters will be key to mobilization and reform efforts 

Thank you
Mindy Romero, Ph.D.
Director, California Civic Engagement Project
UC Davis
msromero@ucdavis.edu

Twitter
@mindysromero
@ccep_ucd

Why is turnout so low?
It’s a midterm!
Electoral context
Institutional barriers
Lack of outreach 
Declining Party Affiliation 
Demographics 
Voter apathy
Equals only those already very likely to vote did so

What Can be Done About Low Turnout?
Electoral system
Outreach 
Civics education – high schools
Nonprofits can be key!
Solutions need to be relevant for communities